Aparita

Toronto Star

Voters felt excluded from `Laptop politics.’ Technology policy decisive in election

APARITA BHANDARI

SPECIAL TO THE STAR

Hindsight is always 20-20. Unfortunately, Indian cyber minister Chandrababu Naidu’s Vision 2020 - of his state becoming an information-technology superpower by the year 2020 - didn’t have enough foresight.

While the Congress party’s former-economist-turned-politician Manmohan Singh swore in as India’s first Sikh prime minister last week, analysts were still debating what went wrong for Naidu.

He was acknowledged as one the next generation crop of Indian politicians, a man who was known for his laptop politics. For 10 years he was the chief minister of the south-eastern coastal state Andhra Pradesh. He brought an IT revolution to his state, turning Hyderabad, the capital, into Cyberabad.
However, Naidu’s spectacular defeat two weeks ago marked a dramatic conclusion to the Indian elections.

Losing three quarters of the seats in the assembly elections, Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP) was ousted by the Congress party. And the defeat of the TDP rocked the boat of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) that was in power at the centre.

The TDP was the second-largest member of the coalition in the centre.

Naidu’s rout rocked another boat - the Sensex stock index in Mumbai fell by over 4 per cent the day his defeat was announced, as overseas investors sold $135 million (U.S.) of Indian stocks.
The eventual 17 per cent drop, when the NDA’s defeat became certain, was the biggest Sensex slump ever.

It’s always hard to analyze the vagaries of Indian politics. But there are two main theories floating around, explaining what went wrong for Naidu.

The popular rebellion of those untouched by the India Shining campaign in Andhra Pradesh is one explanation.

The India Shining campaign had been run by the NDA in the run-up to the elections held from April 20 to May 10. The campaign highlighted the country’s progress under the NDA rule - a booming economy, large foreign exchange reserves largely to an ever-growing IT industry.

However, the campaign didn’t address the poor population of India. In Andhra Pradesh, while Naidu was busy inviting the likes of Microsoft chairman Bill Gates to the Hyderabad, he forgot the rice farmers of his state.

Naidu’s defeat isn’t much of a surprise, says Ananya Mukherjee-Reed, a political science professor at York University.

“Andhra Pradesh is known for its IT industry, but it’s also known as the state where there were a lot of farmer suicides,” she says. “In a sense it reflects what happened in the rest of India with the India Shining campaign. It was a very narrow, urban, highly skilled middle class - which defines the IT sector - who felt the shine.

“If (Naidu) had paid attention to the degree to which the rural economy was suffering, it might’ve been different. That was a basic miscalculation.”

A completely unbalanced economic policy was largely at fault.

“In India, for the last 50 years, we have this classical theory of economic development,” explains Mukherjee-Reed.

“That if you develop a very advanced, modern corporate core, the rest of the economy in the periphery will be pulled by the core into its orbit. It’s the very famous trickle down theory.

“But the trickle down theory doesn’t work until you have very strong redistributive policies.”

The election result was the Andhra Pradesh voters’ revolt, says Mahesh Rangarajan, a political analyst and visiting professor at Cornell University.

“They blamed him for whatever went wrong,” says Rangarajan in a telephone interview from New Delhi. “The TDP was a government presiding over a largely agrarian economy, with the largest number of landless labourers in India. There was a very severe drought for the last two-three years in several parts of the state. In one district alone called Anantapur, at least 2,400 farmers committed suicide between 1997 and 2004. And that’s a conservative government estimate.

“Yes, Naidu had a Vision 2020. But it was never backed by substance. If you take IT, the software exports of Andhra Pradesh are far behind (the states of) Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, or the city of Mumbai, or the township of Noida in Uttar Pradesh.”

The direction of Naidu’s Vision 2020 was wrong, says Rangarajan. “To take advantage of information technology and modernize, a country has to have a wider base of educated people,” he says. “Of the four southern states, Andhra Pradesh continues to be the lowest in terms of life expectancy, literacy, spending on health and education.

“Take the example of China. For its economic reforms, it reformed agriculture. The Chinese farmers got more money. You don’t build a pyramid from the top down; you have to build a strong base first. Mr. Naidu, perhaps, was looking at pyramid upside down.”

Although Naidu enhanced the connectivity of his state - setting up e-bazaars and models of e-governance - he can’t foist the Malaysian model on Andhra Pradesh.

“Malaysia’s per capita income is two-three times higher than India,” says Rangarajan. “In India 47 per cent of children are malnourished. One out of three women is anemic.

In Andhra Pradesh, they have computers in schools where they don’t have electricity. The people are waiting for the electricity to come, so that they can send an e-mail to the chief minister to tell him they have no power.

“IT is great. But we have to recognize its limitations. NASSCOM (the IT and software industry watchdog) says that by 2008 we will have 800,000 people employed by IT. By 2008, we will also have 669 million people not in IT. Now 1 million might be the pride of India, but they’re a very small part of India.”

The flip side of explaining Naidu’s defeat in the elections has nothing to do with IT. It was a strong coalition against the TDP and the rising expectations of the voters that proved to be Naidu’s nemesis, says political analyst Sanjaya Baru.

“I’ve travelled through Andhra Pradesh and you can’t say that the rural people are any worse off than they were five years ago,” says Baru.

“You can’t exaggerate (the suicide villages). The suicides were committed by farmers who had heavily borrowed and couldn’t pay back their loans. India is a free market economy, and agriculture is a free market sector. People make investment decisions and burn their fingers. Just because a group of farmers found themselves bankrupt, that’s not evidence of widespread rural unhappiness.

“Naidu had effective programs for women, children, health and building roads. The problem was that his image focused on IT. And maybe he didn’t do enough in terms of what people expected of him, but you can’t suggest that he hasn’t done anything at all.”

Trying to understand what happened in Andhra Pradesh in terms of IT is a flawed approach, adds Baru.

“I don’t think one should build too many theories in terms of IT in Indian politics,” he says. “Indian politics have lots of factors - caste coalitions, water, which becomes a major issue during summer elections. This obsession of what happened in Andhra Pradesh in terms of IT is utterly politically ill-informed journalism.”

However, both parties of the analytical spectrum do agree that IT will continue to be an integral part of policy making in India.

“The Congress has committed itself to offer a Naidu plus and not Naidu minus,” says Baru. “That is, the good work done in IT, in bio-tech, in institution building, in urban development, plus focus on areas he had neglected like irrigation, agricultural credit and rural infrastructure. It’ll be business as usual. With a more balanced economic policy.”

There’s no reason for the Congress to backtrack, agrees Mukherjee-Reed.

“It’s in nobody’s interest to turn back,” she says. “The hysteria about what will happen to the economic reforms, and IT is a bit overdone. In terms of IT, India has established a global presence. “So it’s in no one’s interest to harm that. And remember that the rural population may be able to turn the vote, but in terms of day to day policy making, it’s the corporate IT sector that can call up the (chief minister) at will.

Toronto Star, [11/03/2003]

Its gee-whiz aspect is gone. Now the Net’s a worker. It gives access, gets messages out and funds campaigns

APARITA BHANDARI

SPECIAL TO THE STAR

It wasn’t that davidmiller.ca was unavailable. The mayoralty candidate’s campaign pundits figured millerformayor.ca had a better ring. And they could kill two birds with one url.

“The campaign flyer has millerformayor.ca on one side and his policies on the other,” says Bruce Scott, director of communication for the Miller campaign.

“We’ve also put millerformayor.ca on T-shirts, brochures. We’re actively sending people to the Web site during these elections, and the strategy has worked really well. Now that the attention is more focussed on the (mayoralty campaign) after Iraq, SARS and the provincial elections, we’re seeing more visits to the site.

“It was an active decision (to have a Web site) from the launch of our campaign in January.”
In politics, Web sites and related internet technologies have been making their mark, as can be seen from the Howard Dean phenomenon in the United States.

The easily accessible, interactive Internet helps account for the staying power of the former Vermont governor running for president, according to The New Republic.

While other presidential campaign managers are using traditional schmoozing methods, Dean’s campaign manager Joe Trippi has been busy dreaming up a webby takeover.

He spends his time checking numbers of registered Dean supporters on meetup.com, posting to liberal blogs, sending text messages to supporters who have signed up for the Dean wireless network, and otherwise devising ways to use the Internet to build what Trippi envisions as “the largest grassroots organization in the history of (the Democrat) party.”

And though the dot-com meltdown and the failure of many Web retailers took some of the initial bloom of the Internet as a tool to move goods, Canadian political candidates have also noticed the power of the Web.

Take the lively 2003 Toronto mayoralty election.

Of the 44 mayoralty candidates listed on the city hall Web site, upwards of 20 have included Web addresses in their contact information.

The 15 candidates excluding the ‘Big Five’ - candidates Barbara Hall, Tom Jakobek, David Miller, John Nunziata and John Tory - have also used their Web sites as campaign manifestos.

Most of these Web sites are simple, although three candidates decided to go for a fancy flash intro.
The candidates include Web pages listing general electoral information such as the candidate’s biography and platform, and offer nifty slogans, personal views and some electoral peeves.
Some also include ways for potential volunteers to sign up to help, and let interested donors to donate money to the candidate’s campaign.

These Web sites are also a handy way of learning about some of the more interesting campaigns.
Mayoralty candidate Paul Lewin, for example, wants Toronto to become a province as indicated by his url - provinceoftoronto.ca.

One of the many plans listed in candidate Luis Silva’s Web site - themanwiththeplan.ca - is to “(end) the infamous ‘Curse of the Big M’ by inducing the Toronto Maple Leafs to officially retire Frank Mahovlich’s number 27 during the 2003-2004 hockey season so that no player can wear that number again.”

And Barry Pletch - barrypletch.ca - says you should vote for him “if you want BEER (Better Ethics and Economic Responsibility).”

The Big Five have made their Web sites an integral part of their campaigns, complementing traditional canvassing methods such as handing out printed materials at campaign rallies, phone calls and door-to-door canvassing.

Despite their individual looks, the Big Five Web sites have more similarities than differences. They have a clean look, with an emphasis on easy navigation.

Home pages carry brief summaries of the latest news of the election process and quick links to the candidates’ bios, their stances, past and future events, election FAQs as well as opportunities to help out with the campaign.

On cue, with lawn signs popping up across the city, most of the Web sites have pop-ups that make requesting a lawn sign as simple as a mouse click. All Web sites offer secure online donating methods.
They also have some form of multimedia available - some basic such as Miller’s audio-only radio ads to more elaborate strategies such as the Tom TV series on the Jakobek Web site.

Video testimonials on Hall’s Web site change each time you refresh the page, while the Nunziata Web site’s gallery section shows thumbnails of video speeches.

Web sites have become indispensable to municipal politics, says candidate John Tory (johntory.ca). As president and CEO of Rogers Cable, a major Internet service provider, for the past four years, Tory is especially aware of the internet’s appeal.

“(Web sites) are the way a whole generation of people communicate,” he says. “It’s the people who are computer and internet savvy, who now prefer to get information not from a fax, not from phone, not from TV, but through internet.

“It’s a much more effective way to carry out the business of politics - how people volunteer, how they get a lawn sign, how they donate.”

In fact, if elected, Tory hopes to carry out much of the city’s business by upgrading the city’s Web site and making full use of the internet. “I think the city government is way behind making use of technology and making it available to the citizens and letting them do routine things through the internet. You should be able to get a permit by going online at 3 a.m. if you want, filling a form and then getting (the permit) in your mail.”

As the election date is coming closer, the number of people visiting his Web site, maintained by a group of web guru volunteers, is increasing.
The traffic on the Web site is also changing the nature of political campaigning, says Tory. “I find when I go to events, people have been to my site, have read my policies and ask me informed questions,” he says.

Election Web sites have become the central hub of communication for an electoral campaign says Chris Carder, CEO of Thindata.

A Web site developer with a focus on developing online and e-mail databases, Thindata is helping out with Barbara Hall’s campaign by managing her Web site. barbarahall.com.

“These elections are the first time we’re actively integrating the internet into the rest of the campaign,” says Carder.

“It’s a tool to gather feedback, gather information from voters, volunteers and donors into a central database, and then reach back to them via e-mail or phone or mail, and engage them into the campaign.”

It’s also a way for candidate to check for and counter any spread of misinformation.

“The Web site is where you hear from the candidate,” says Carder. It’s not coming to you through a filter. You can go to the Web site and see the policies or listen to the interview that was on last night.
“In the past candidates would simply put up a Web site that would sit just there. Now we’re really looking at how to use it for outreach, to translate web activity into real connections with people. It could be sending out newsletters or sending surveys, or challenges to build financial support.”

For his part, Nick Trainos, Web strategist for Tom Jakobek’s campaign, thinks the technology involved is least important in Jakobek’s Web site - jakobek.info. A childhood friend of Jakobek, Trainos ensured Jakobek’s vision of connecting with the electorate was reflected in the Web site. “There are 1.7 million electors, and Tom wanted to reach people in every and any way that he can,” says Trainos. “He wants to listen to what people have to say, specifically the young people and the diverse ethnic people. (His Web site) is a like a gathering spot, a virtual town hall.”

So, other than information on Jakobek, the volunteer team focused in on various quick links to election information and the diverse media in Toronto including community and ethnic newspapers.

They’ve also tried to make the Web site as accessible as possible. “We have some multimedia content like Tom TV and Radio Jakobek, but the key thing is accessibility,” says Trainos. “We’ve tried to maintain web compliance, which means visually impaired people can view the site. Formatting is separate from content. It’s a quick download, for people with slow internet connection. It’s a very text-based Web site.

“We’ve kept in mind the average person who wants more information at any time they want. The Web site is up 24-7.”

Despite its efficiency, however, the Web is only a complimentary tool for campaigning right now, says Scott.

“It’s a remarkable way to communicate, to fundraise, to have lawn sign requests,” he says.
“But we still have volunteers handing out campaign literature, we still get a lot of phone calls, we still call people and send mail out. There are still many people without online access.”

So, where will the Internet take politicians in the next few years? Will it take over the business of communication or will it grow obsolete in the face of new technology? Too early to say, but the signs, so to speak, suggest that in electoral politics the Net has emerged as a real force and, given what it can do, may have staying-power.

The Toronto Star

Dalit leader hopes to be politically `untouchable.’ Her UP supporters call her ‘daughter of the land.’

APARITA BHANDARI

SPECIAL TO THE STAR

It’s all high drama and low politics when it comes to the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh.

And standing at its helm is Mayawati, chief minister of the state known as UP and a woman whose single name has become synonymous with controversy.

“I’m not one of those chief ministers who come and just make announcements,” Mayawati told a gathering of select Indo-Canadians at an Indian restaurant in Markham during a recent visit to promote investment opportunities in UP.

“I repeat. I’m not an announcements minister. I do what I say.”

It’s a tone expected of her - immensely confident, just shy of arrogant.

Then again, Mayawati does rule over India’s largest state, with a population of nearly 170 million people. She’s also the first Dalit chief minister to head a state government.

Dalit refers to a community of the downtrodden on the lowest rung of the caste hierarchy of the Hindus. Formerly known as “untouchables,” they’re also referred to as the “scheduled caste.”

Mayawati made history in 1995, not only because she was a Dalit but also because, at age 39, she was the youngest politician ever to be elected chief minister.

That leadership stint lasted only four months, but she returned in 1997 for a term that lasted six months.

After assembly elections in February, 2002, she was back on top as her Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) formed a state coalition government with the Hindu nationalist Bhartiya Janata Party, which also leads India’s coalition national government.

Mayawati’s political career began in 1977, when she was recruited by BSP founder Kanshi Ram.
One of nine siblings, she earned two graduate degrees and was planning a career in the Indian bureaucracy when Ram heard her speak at a national debate competition and convinced her to take a shot at politics.

In her debate performance, Mayawati had argued Gandhi’s use of the word harijan (God’s children) was demeaning to Dalits.

It’s a viewpoint to which she still adheres.

“All I said was that, when the constitution has ascribed the name `scheduled caste’ and `scheduled tribe’ to our people, Gandhi wasn’t doing us a favour by calling us God’s children,” she explains in Hindi while taking a breather at a downtown Toronto hotel.

“We’re not orphans. And if we are God’s children, who are the others? Devil’s children?”

It’s the sort of rhetoric that draws cheers from her Dalit supporters, who form one-quarter of the population of UP, as well as from other social and religious minorities in India.

Still, in the rough-and-tumble world of Indian politics, Mayawati says she’s being picked on because she’s a Dalit.

But such is her stronghold that her lavish 47th birthday party, thrown at the state’s expense in January, drew sharp criticism only from her critics.

“(Former Indian prime minister) Jawaharlal Nehru’s birthday is still celebrated as Children’s Day by the (national) government,” bristles Mayawati, who wore a diamond necklace worth about $1 million to the gala affair.

“Because he was from an upper-caste community, there was no problem. But when I, a schedule caste girl, the chief minister of India’s largest state, want to celebrate my birthday as Self-Respect Day, because I instilled self-respect in the lower-caste community, it becomes a problem.

“This is the caste-ism we are struggling against. It’s the upper-caste people and opposition party’s people who create these situations. When I respond to these allegations, my community gets even more self-confident. So, it works for me - my vote bank increases.”

Caste-based politics has become increasingly important in India and is being skilfully used by a new breed of politicians. Oxford-educated leaders who once formed political dynasties such as the Congress party have been replaced by leaders who speak the local lingo and propose to work for their “community’s interests.”

Although UP is one of the poorest Indian states and Mayawati’s critics point out she hasn’t addressed basic issues such as the primary education system, she maintains that UP’s flagging fortunes have turned around since she came to power.

“The law-and-order situation is completely under control,” she says. “We’ve allotted funds for the welfare of the lower castes and religious minorities. We constructed roads between villages, chose 13,000 villages and took care of their basic needs, such as water and electricity. We’ve distributed government land among the weaker section (of people) for agriculture.

“The state’s economic situation was bad before I came to power. In one year, my government has managed to collect record-breaking revenues. And it’s only when we get revenues that we can allot money for these policies.

And that, she stresses, is the reason for the 16-day junket that brought her to Toronto and other centres with strong expatriate Indian populations.

The “invest-in-UP” program seeks private investment from the non-resident Indian community, with the government playing a supervisory role.

The plan is representative of Mayawati’s political acumen.

Having constructed a highway and planning to build two international airports and embark on other major projects, she uses the mantra of “job creation” and a revitalized state economy that benefits all strata of society.

Add this mantra to Mayawati’s image as a “daughter of the land,” and you’ve got a vote-winning phenomenon, despite allegations that she’s a corrupt and cutthroat politician.

It’s also the reason for uneasy political marriages like the one partnering Mayawati’s BSP and the Hindu nationalist party.

Coalition-building might come into play again when India goes to general elections next year, but Mayawati says the trend won’t last long.

“Until now, the balance of power has been with the upper-caste parties, so we need to make alliances with them.

“But the common man has had a political and social awakening. They’ll vote for the parties who work for them. No one can stop us from forming a government in the centre.”

The Toronto Star, [12/08/2002]

Special to the Star

New Delhi — Electioneering slogans at rallies are getting bolder. Bickering over internal party politics is growing louder. Speculation is running rampant.

Legislative-assembly elections will finally be held Thursday in the riot-ravaged west Indian state of Gujarat, with results expected to be announced next Sunday.

India’s election commission finally gave the go-ahead on Oct. 28. Earlier, it ruled that the situation in Gujarat wasn’t conducive to free and fair elections in the wake of communal riots that left more than 700 people dead. Thousands were left homeless in the riots, which were sparked on Feb. 27 when a Muslim mob torched a train carrying Hindu pilgrims as it left Godhra station.

The election commission’s decision to proceed triggered a flurry of campaign activity and controversy.
The two main contenders - the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which also leads the National Democratic Alliance coalition government in Delhi, and the Congress party - are working overtime to highlight the other’s shortcomings.

While the BJP has adapted popular Hindi tunes to lighten its official campaign, Congress relies on audio-visual cassettes depicting the BJP’s failure in matters of governance, particularly its inability to contain the riots that wracked Gujarat.

Speculation as to which party will win varies from expert to expert.

“There has been a whole slew of opinion polls,” says Dileep Padgoankar, assistant managing editor of the Times of India. “Some indicate BJP is heading for victory, while others are more cautious. But I wouldn’t want to hazard a guess.

“Several factors can change voter perception - the choice of candidates, the antipathy between leaders in the BJP and the effectiveness of the Congress.”

Siddharth Varadarajan, author of Gujarat: The Making Of A Tragedy, says BJP chief minister Narendra Modi will be the cause of his party’s defeat.

“I think the people of Gujarat have seen the result of Modi’s kind of politics,” says Varadarajan, who’s also a Times’ journalist. “(Gujarat) has become a place where violence can break out any time, businesses can be affected, lives are affected. It’s not a safe place.
“I think Modi will be defeated.”

Specifically, Varadarajan takes the government to task for “complicity of the state administration and the police” in the rioting and cases of “inciting groups to indulge in violence, covering up criminal acts and sabotaging (court) cases.”

He says the Congress party also will score points for the BJP’s failure to address problems brought on by drought and the downward economic trend.

“Because of the BJP’s inability to deliver on any of its agenda, you have to ultimately divide the electorate and divert them into non-issues, so that people don’t talk about the performance of the government, which has been pathetic.”

Thus, the religion card is getting strong play.

With the election commission warning political parties to desist from sectarian rhetoric, the BJP has shown some restraint in waving the saffron flag of Hindu nationalism.

But its appendage organization, Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), has been busy rallying the “Hindu vote” - and inciting hatred, Varadarajan says - in a state where the tense co-existence of Hindus and Muslims has been tested regularly for more than a century.

“The growth of BJP in various parts of northern India has been on the strength of Muslim baiting,” says Padgoankar.

“The current campaign is being carried out on the notion of the Gujarati pride, but if you scratch the surface, it’s an anti-Muslim tirade. And the only serious opposition (the Congress party) is being led by Shankersinh Vaghela, who was previously with the BJP.

“The election, then, is a contest between a hard Hindu line and a soft Hindu line.”

Meanwhile, the election commission says it’s keeping a close eye on the situation.

Says commission spokesperson A.N. Jha: “Should there be apprehension or perceived danger to voting people from a particular community, alternate poll stations will be provided. Also, 94 senior government officers will function as observers and the international diplomatic community based in Delhi and the media will be given full access to the elections.”

When the commission took stock of the situation in Gujarat in August, Jha says, it “found that many people had been displaced in the aftermath of the riots and hadn’t returned home. So our electoral rolls were distorted. Also, the general situation was very tense, with a lot of apprehension and fear in the minds of people.”

With the Oct. 16 publication of a “home to home” verification of the electoral rolls and the steady return of people to their homes, the commission finally set the Dec. 12 date.
“We are keeping a watch on the situation,” says Jha.

“There are still some camps (for displaced people) and we could locate polling booths in those camps. At the same time, those people are likely to return by the time of the polls. The situation is dynamic.”
The election commission is also confident the electronic voting system that has been used extensively in India since 1999 has made election-rigging more difficult than under the ballot box system.
Whatever the election brings, Padgoankar thinks the BJP will find it hard to replicate the Gujarat situation elsewhere in India.

“Irrespective of the results,” he says, “all sides will have to engage in some hard thinking about why these things happen. What forces led to the burning of the train (at Godhra) and what accounts for the vicious reaction? Honest answers need to be given.”

Still, Varadarajan is fearful of a BJP victory.

“If Modi wins, then the BJP will start believing extreme communal violence and polarization will help them retain power at the centre for the next general elections in 2004,” he says.

“That will be alarming for the country.”

The Globe and Mail, [10/11/2002]

NEW DELHI — He had been considered the prince who would be king, but in his school days, Omar Abdullah was consistently known as a student who could do better.

Although Mr. Abdullah, now 32, has a sterling reputation and has received little but praise for his work as India’s deputy minister of external affairs, the scion of Kashmir’s oldest dynasty definitely underachieved in the state’s violence-plagued elections, held over the past month but finalized yesterday.

Mr. Abdullah’s National Conference party lost its majority, and he lost both his seat and his hopes of becoming Kashmir’s next chief minister, a post previously held by both his father and grandfather, who founded the movement in 1939. Neither man had ever lost an election in Kashmir, and their party dominated the state government for 50 years.

“Our party is weak, and we need to find out why,” Mr. Abdullah said yesterday. “We have to find out why so many of our ministers lost.”

Mr. Abdullah’s woes were an embarrassment for his family reputation and for Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, an ally whose party also lost seats yesterday. But analysts and foreign observers, including the U.S. government, said the results represented a positive conclusion to the Kashmir voting, which took place amid militant attacks that killed hundreds of people and independent reports of electoral irregularities.

“Abdullah’s defeat is a major development,” said Pran Chopra, a political analyst with the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research. “But it’s not as important as the fact that most of the seats have been won by political parties and groups which are against militancy, against Pakistan and not against the continued accession of the state to India.”

Since none of the major opposition parties is sympathetic to the Islamic militants who have fought since 1989 to wrest the Muslim-majority region from Hindu-majority India, no significant policy changes are expected. The rejection of the National Conference was seen rather as an expression of Kashmir’s exhaustion with militancy, death, poverty and what is seen as the party’s arrogance.

Mr. Abdullah was considered a good bet to change that and promised yesterday to help the other parties “solve the difficulties of the state.” But he also reaffirmed that his party will resign itself to an introspective period of opposition, remaining out of the expected coalition government even though it will have the most seats in the state assembly, 28 out of 87.

“The National Conference will be in election mode,” he said in an interview yesterday. “I am sure that new elections will come soon, as coalition governments haven’t fared well in the past, and we will prepare for that.”

The young leader graciously called the vote a “free and fair process” that was “a victory for the people and democracy.”

Indeed, despite the loss of his own seat, the Kashmir election process has affirmed that Mr. Abdullah enjoys popularity unlike that of any other Indian politician of his age.

“Of his generation of politicians, Omar is without question the freshest and most interesting,” said Dileep Padgaonkar, executive managing editor of the Times of India. “He has impressed his colleagues in the government, in the parliament and the Indian public at large with his moderate views. He’s very secular in his views and deeply committed to India.”

The consensus on the younger Mr. Abdullah is that he’s intelligent, articulate, a straight talker and good-looking to boot — a refreshing change from other Kashmiri politicians and the Indian political scene as a whole.

“He’s seen as a man of ideas. He has impressed people with his hard work, administrative acumen and swift grasp of issues,” Mr. Padgaonkar added.