Aparita

The Toronto Star, [12/08/2002]

 

Special to the Star

New Delhi — Electioneering slogans at rallies are getting bolder. Bickering over internal party politics is growing louder. Speculation is running rampant.

Legislative-assembly elections will finally be held Thursday in the riot-ravaged west Indian state of Gujarat, with results expected to be announced next Sunday.

India’s election commission finally gave the go-ahead on Oct. 28. Earlier, it ruled that the situation in Gujarat wasn’t conducive to free and fair elections in the wake of communal riots that left more than 700 people dead. Thousands were left homeless in the riots, which were sparked on Feb. 27 when a Muslim mob torched a train carrying Hindu pilgrims as it left Godhra station.

The election commission’s decision to proceed triggered a flurry of campaign activity and controversy.
The two main contenders - the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which also leads the National Democratic Alliance coalition government in Delhi, and the Congress party - are working overtime to highlight the other’s shortcomings.

While the BJP has adapted popular Hindi tunes to lighten its official campaign, Congress relies on audio-visual cassettes depicting the BJP’s failure in matters of governance, particularly its inability to contain the riots that wracked Gujarat.

Speculation as to which party will win varies from expert to expert.

“There has been a whole slew of opinion polls,” says Dileep Padgoankar, assistant managing editor of the Times of India. “Some indicate BJP is heading for victory, while others are more cautious. But I wouldn’t want to hazard a guess.

“Several factors can change voter perception - the choice of candidates, the antipathy between leaders in the BJP and the effectiveness of the Congress.”

Siddharth Varadarajan, author of Gujarat: The Making Of A Tragedy, says BJP chief minister Narendra Modi will be the cause of his party’s defeat.

“I think the people of Gujarat have seen the result of Modi’s kind of politics,” says Varadarajan, who’s also a Times’ journalist. “(Gujarat) has become a place where violence can break out any time, businesses can be affected, lives are affected. It’s not a safe place.
“I think Modi will be defeated.”

Specifically, Varadarajan takes the government to task for “complicity of the state administration and the police” in the rioting and cases of “inciting groups to indulge in violence, covering up criminal acts and sabotaging (court) cases.”

He says the Congress party also will score points for the BJP’s failure to address problems brought on by drought and the downward economic trend.

“Because of the BJP’s inability to deliver on any of its agenda, you have to ultimately divide the electorate and divert them into non-issues, so that people don’t talk about the performance of the government, which has been pathetic.”

Thus, the religion card is getting strong play.

With the election commission warning political parties to desist from sectarian rhetoric, the BJP has shown some restraint in waving the saffron flag of Hindu nationalism.

But its appendage organization, Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), has been busy rallying the “Hindu vote” - and inciting hatred, Varadarajan says - in a state where the tense co-existence of Hindus and Muslims has been tested regularly for more than a century.

“The growth of BJP in various parts of northern India has been on the strength of Muslim baiting,” says Padgoankar.

“The current campaign is being carried out on the notion of the Gujarati pride, but if you scratch the surface, it’s an anti-Muslim tirade. And the only serious opposition (the Congress party) is being led by Shankersinh Vaghela, who was previously with the BJP.

“The election, then, is a contest between a hard Hindu line and a soft Hindu line.”

Meanwhile, the election commission says it’s keeping a close eye on the situation.

Says commission spokesperson A.N. Jha: “Should there be apprehension or perceived danger to voting people from a particular community, alternate poll stations will be provided. Also, 94 senior government officers will function as observers and the international diplomatic community based in Delhi and the media will be given full access to the elections.”

When the commission took stock of the situation in Gujarat in August, Jha says, it “found that many people had been displaced in the aftermath of the riots and hadn’t returned home. So our electoral rolls were distorted. Also, the general situation was very tense, with a lot of apprehension and fear in the minds of people.”

With the Oct. 16 publication of a “home to home” verification of the electoral rolls and the steady return of people to their homes, the commission finally set the Dec. 12 date.
“We are keeping a watch on the situation,” says Jha.

“There are still some camps (for displaced people) and we could locate polling booths in those camps. At the same time, those people are likely to return by the time of the polls. The situation is dynamic.”
The election commission is also confident the electronic voting system that has been used extensively in India since 1999 has made election-rigging more difficult than under the ballot box system.
Whatever the election brings, Padgoankar thinks the BJP will find it hard to replicate the Gujarat situation elsewhere in India.

“Irrespective of the results,” he says, “all sides will have to engage in some hard thinking about why these things happen. What forces led to the burning of the train (at Godhra) and what accounts for the vicious reaction? Honest answers need to be given.”

Still, Varadarajan is fearful of a BJP victory.

“If Modi wins, then the BJP will start believing extreme communal violence and polarization will help them retain power at the centre for the next general elections in 2004,” he says.

“That will be alarming for the country.”

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